Conditioning and updating evidence

Conditioning and updating evidence

A new interpretation of Dempster–Shafer conditional notions based directly upon the mass assignments is provided. The masses of those propositions that may imply the complement of the conditioning proposition are shown to be completely annulled by the conditioning operation; conditioning may then be construed as a re-distribution of the masses of some of these propositions to those that definit...

Conditioning and Updating under Cumulative Prospect Theory

Under expected utility theory, unconditional expected utility can be decomposed into a weighted sum of conditional expected utilities where the weights are marginal probabilities. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a similar decomposition in the framework of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). The conditions also ensure that a decision maker’s conditional preferences (given some ev...

Conditioning, updating and lower probability zero

We discuss the issue of conditioning on events with probability zero within an imprecise-probabilistic setting, where it may happen that the conditioning event has lower probability zero, but positive upper probability. In this situation, two different conditioning rules are commonly used: regular extension and natural extension. We explain the difference between them and discuss various techni...

Conditioning and Evidence

There are many measures of uncertainty out there. Sometimes they appear to conflict. For example, classical or frequency probability supports significance testing. Bayesian probability, in the same situation, would call for conditioning on the evidence. Evidential probability resolves many of these conflicts in an intuitively plausible way, and in a way that admits of real world semantic justif...

Online appendix for Conditioning and Updating under Cumulative Prospect Theory